I hate to say it, but....

 How I think things are likely to unfold: 

Remember, Trump can keep filing lawsuits almost ad infinitum. If things are delayed enough it risks being thrown into the House. The potential for legislative mischief is strong and, I think, likely. Hence my prediction. You may say it’s hardly likely. Sure, but what has been likely at all this year? 

Georgia: 

The deadline for county certification is Nov. 13.  The secretary of state will is supposed to certify the statewide election results and the slate of presidential electors no later than Nov. 20. He is under fire from both the governor and GOP. Should he leave or be removed, certification could be delayed.  

The secretary of state then submits those results to Gov. Brian Kemp Technically, he is required to accept them.  They are currently doing an audit of all 5 million votes.   The governor’s certification is supposed to be pro forma.  Nothing is pro forma this year. These timeline can be changed only by an order from a Georgia superior court judge, according to state law. Another law suit that would be appealed. Note that  as a consequence of the election of 1870, Congress enacted a statute providing that if the vote of a state is not certified by the governor of that state, it cannot be counted unless both Houses of Congress concur. So it would (will)  be interesting to see what would (will) happen to Georgia if the governor refused(s) to certify the election. 

Michigan: 

The state board meets to certify results Nov. 23rd. The Board is made up of two Democrats and two Republicans.  Should there not be a majority for certification, the legislature, heavily Republican decides. The courts could intervene – another lawsuit on its way to SCOTUS which, as we recently know, leans toward constitutionally making legislatures in charge of election processes. 

Wisconsin 

Probably less of a problem for Democrats because the certification is done by the chair of the Election Commission, a Democrat who submits it to the governor, another Democrat.  A recount is possible, but the Trump campaign would have to pay for it. Unlikely to happen.  On the other hand a very Republican legislature and Supreme Court.

Nevada 

Counties forward results to Secretary of State, a Republican. Nevada Supreme Court canvasses the vote by Nov 24 and the governor, a Democrat proclaims the winner. Nevada law permits a candidate can challenge the results in Nevada by filing a written statement in court within two weeks of Election Day, i.e. Nov 17th, more legal challenges and delay possible. Toss-up as to the outcome. So far they have lost both court cases.  Don’t know whether appeals are in the offing. 

Arizona 

The board of supervisors in each county reviews the results and can postpone on a day-to-day basis up to six times if a polling place’s data is missing. Results then go to the Arizona secretary of state, a Democrat, who certifies them on Nov. 30. She does so in the presence of the governor and AZ  Supreme Court Chief and their AG. The Trump campaign, the Arizona GOP and the Republican National Committee have asked a judge to block certification of the election result until any affected ballots can be manually reviewed. That has been described as a delaying tactic.  Well, dah. That’s the idea. Another appeal to SCOTUS possible. AZ legislature control not yet clear but likely to be Republican. 

And finally, good old Pennsylvania 

Pennsylvania’s counties are required  to announce when its count is complete. This triggers a five-day period in which any three voters can petition a state court to order a recount on the grounds of an error in the count. Three voters is nothing. Official results fo to the Secretary of State who certifies but has no deadline.  Then it goes to the governor who appoints the electors. Contesting the election will delay the result and appointment of electors.  The legislature is heavily GOP. Contesting requires only 100 voters to petition a state court by Nov. 23 alleging that the election was illegally conducted. Pennsylvania has seen the greatest number of lawsuits filed by Republicans after the election. A very likely candidate for appeal to SCOTUS 

The Pennsylvania GOP had asked the Supreme Court for a stay in counting ballots that arrived after the legislative deadline, but the court deadlocked 4-4.  With Barrett on the Court that might have been different and in future cases even if Roberts sides with the liberal group they will not have a majority so I am not optimistic about chances in the Supreme Court. 

The potential for legislative mischief is strong and, I think, likely. Hence my prediction.  

 

A Bankrupt Industry

Polling 

Let’s assume a fantasy world for a moment, a world where polls are wildly accurate.  What good are they? Do they help people make decisions? They shouldn’t.  Isn’t it better if decisions are made based on data and policies rather than what a group of people might or might not believe? Just how are polls used in a political environment other than to give the media something to speculate about. 

Now let’s get back to the real world where recent events have shown polls to be wildly inaccurate? The same questions need to be asked.  Do they provide any value to the decision-making process at all? Even considering the margin-of-error (I.e., the CYA factor that basically says take all these numbers with a salt mine as they might be completely wrong) do they help us in any way. 

I submit not. The polling industry is a house of cards, an emperor with no clothes, merely another excuse for “journalists” to have something to talk and speculate about. It’s a defective product that we didn’t need in the first place but comes with no money-back-guarantee unlike every other product. A product that pretends to be scientific but is just vapor.  

Polling distorts the political process as it forces politicians to focus on a subset of the population and yet that data has been shown to be wrong. Dare we nominate Sanders? Based on polling data, we know he can’t win.  Really? Trump can’t win, so we need to distance ourselves from him.  Really? Polling is distorting the political process by delivering messages to voters that are most likely to be wrong.  If I am told the polls show Biden with a 17 point lead over Trump, should I bother going to the polls? Polling also changes expectations. If Biden supporters expect a huge win and it doesn’t happen, then they have less reason to accept the results. 

Worse, polling changes the nature of reporting. Time is now spent on speculating and guessing what might happen, rather than reporting what has happened. Decisions should be made based on what has happened rather than what might. Pollsters, in their defense, argue that their polls in 2016 were correct when they were taken the day of the election.  I don’t need that.  The election was objective proof of what people thought.  Who needs polls to tell me what I already know?