Mutated COVID-19

We’ve all followed developments of COVID-19 and its associated effects. I daily peruse the numbers and especially the death rates / 100,000 that the New York Times updates frequently on its website ( NYTimes Tracker ) We know that every year we need to get a flu vaccine shot as the strain mutates into a variety of different forms and it’s always somewhat of a guess as to whether the vaccine that’s developed assures immunity to the current strain. Herd immunity is always what is the most favorable goal but the hardest to achieve as you have to have immunity in about 80% of a population to achieve that nirvana. It worked with polio and smallpox, but those were developed during times when people respected science and feared the disease more than the shot.

Something that’s worried me as I examine the numbers is the difference in virulence between the disease in Asia and that of western Europe. Could the virus have mutated? Should we not be talking about the Wuhan Virus but rather the Lombard Virus? Were the differences due to better social vigilance or government enforcement of social distancing?

There could be other reasons as well:
A.Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
B.Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
C.Characteristics of the health-care system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
D. The number of people tested or better reporting.
E.Other factors, many of which remain unknown.

Or, could it be that the virus mutated after it left Asia and found a haven in Italy and thence to the rest of Europe and the U.S.

There was a disturbing report this morning in the LA Times about a study (1) that reveals a mutation found in Europe that spread to the U.S. which is far more contagious, becoming the dominant form of the virus. As noted in the Abstract, this has real implications for the development of a vaccine and strategies to curb the virus. Opening up without very strict controls may create an environment for even more rapid spread of the virus with concomitant fatalities.
The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions.

References:

1.https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf
This is the full study cited by The LA Times