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Thursday, March 12, 2026

Shifting Targets


Daily Log: Trump, Rubio, Hegseth & Caine on the Iran War (with some help from Claude)

Beginning February 27, 2026


February 27 — Pre-War

Oman's Foreign Minister announced a diplomatic "breakthrough" with Iran, but no major public statements on war goals were made by the four officials. Negotiations over a new nuclear agreement had failed in February, with mediating Omani officials reporting significant progress and Iran willing to make concessions — but Trump said he was "not thrilled" with the talks.


February 28 — Day 1 (Strikes Begin)

Trump: In an early-morning video posted to Truth Social, Trump announced the beginning of strikes on Iran. When announcing the strikes, he said the U.S. military would destroy Iran's ballistic missile program, prevent the regime from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and stop Iran's support of military proxy networks. He also strongly implied regime change, calling on the Iranian people to "be bold, be heroic and take back your country."

Israel: Netanyahu said the attacks were being conducted "with the assistance of the United States, my friend, U.S. President Donald Trump, and the U.S. military," describing the joint war as something he had been pushing for decades: "This coalition of forces allows us to do what I have yearned to do for 40 years."


March 1 — Day 2

Trump: In an interview with Axios, Trump said he could "go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days."


March 2 — Day 3

Trump: Laid out four military objectives: destroying Iran's missile capabilities, annihilating its navy, preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and stopping arms flows to proxy groups.

Rubio (on Capitol Hill, briefing congressional leaders — the statement that ignited a firestorm): "We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action against Iran. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces by the Iranian regime. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties." These were the first time a Trump official had so explicitly acknowledged Israel as a driving force behind the war — landing at a moment when Americans' public support for Israel had hit historic lows.

Hegseth (Pentagon press briefing): Said the U.S. goal was to "destroy the missile threats, destroy the navy, no nukes," and rejected the notion that the conflict would be prolonged or involve nation-building. "We didn't start this war, but under President Trump we're finishing it." Also said: "This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change and the world is better off for it."

Caine (same Pentagon briefing): Told reporters that the military objective "will be difficult to achieve and, in some cases, will be difficult and gritty work," and warned: "We expect to take additional losses."


March 3 — Day 4

Trump (meeting German Chancellor Merz in the Oval Office): Flatly contradicted Rubio on Israel's role, telling reporters "No" when asked if Israel forced his hand — and adding, "I might have forced their hand."

Hegseth (on X): Boosted Trump's message immediately, posting: "This is 100% correct."

Rubio (returning to Capitol Hill for House and Senate briefings): Tried to walk back his Monday remarks. He told reporters, "Your statement is false," when asked whether the U.S. got involved because Israel was going to strike Iran. He said: "I told you this had to happen anyway. The president made a decision... that decision had been made." He called the Israel question "a question of timing, of why this had to happen as a joint operation."

Rubio also announced that U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran would increase in intensity going forward.


March 4 — Day 5

Hegseth (Pentagon briefing): Said, "I stand before you today with one unmistakable message about Operation Epic Fury — America is winning decisively, devastatingly and without mercy." He predicted the U.S. and Israel would control Iranian airspace within a week, and said: "We can sustain this fight easily for as long as we need."

Hegseth on Israel's role: Said Iran's attacks on its Gulf neighbors were "pushing those countries in our direction to support this effort, further alienating Iran," and described Iran's behavior as "a demonstration of the desperation of that regime."

Caine: Noted that a U.S. submarine had sunk the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena — the first American submarine sinking of an enemy warship since 1945.


March 5 — Day 6

Trump: Said there are "no time limits" for how long the war would continue.

Hegseth: Stated the war had "only just begun," and said he would not rule out sending American ground troops to Iran.


March 6 — Day 7

Russia/Sanctions: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed that the administration had permitted India to resume buying Russian oil. He also suggested more Russian oil would receive sanctions relief due to the war, saying: "There are hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels of sanctioned crude on the water. And in essence, by un-sanctioning them, Treasury can create supply."

Senate Democrats reacted sharply. A joint statement signed by Schumer, Warren, Shaheen and others said the administration's move was "particularly galling in light of public reporting that Russia is assisting Iran in targeting Americans in the Middle East," and argued it gave Putin "windfall profits" to continue his war in Ukraine while Iran was actively trying to kill U.S. troops.


March 7 — Day 8

Trump (traveling to Dover Air Force Base for a dignified transfer for six soldiers killed in an Iranian strike in Kuwait): Said the oil price surge was "a small price to pay" for defeating Iran.

Russia/Intelligence: Reports emerged that Russia had provided Iran with information that could help Iranian forces strike American ships, aircraft, and bases in the region, with one U.S. official stating point-blank: "Russia is providing intelligence help to Iran." White House envoy Steve Witkoff said he had communicated to Russian officials that they "shouldn't share any intelligence with Iran."


March 8 — Day 9

Hegseth: On Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, Hegseth said "that wasn't our necessary objective," but added that Israel was not leading the U.S. deeper into war. "The president has made clear to those concerns that we're not getting pulled in any direction. We're leading. The president is leading." The administration also privately told Israel it was "not satisfied" with strikes on energy infrastructure and ordered they not be repeated without prior approval.


March 9 — Day 10 — Putin Call

Trump-Putin call: Trump spoke by phone with Putin for the first time since the start of the war. The call was requested by Washington and lasted approximately one hour. Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov described it as "frank and businesslike" and said Putin presented Trump with "several proposals" for ending the war. The Kremlin described Trump's assessment as being given "in the context of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli operation."

Trump (after the call, at Trump National Doral): Said Putin "was very impressed with what he saw" the U.S. do in Iran, and called it "a military success, the likes of which people haven't seen." He told reporters he had "a very good call with Putin," and said: "He wants to be helpful with Iran. I told him you can be more helpful by ending the war in Ukraine."

Trump on sanctions: Told reporters: "We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out. Then, who knows, maybe we won't have to put them on — there'll be so much peace." He did not specify which countries. The Kremlin's Dmitry Peskov said sanctions had not been discussed "in any detailed way" on the call.

Trump on war goals: Claimed the U.S. was "achieving major strides toward completing our military objective," and said "some people could say they're pretty well complete." At a House Republican gathering the same day, however, he said "we haven't won enough."


March 10 — Day 11

Hegseth (Pentagon briefing): Narrowed U.S. objectives to three — destroying missile capabilities, destroying the navy, and permanently denying Iran nuclear weapons — and vowed there would be no "mission creep." He declared Tuesday would be "the most intense day of strikes yet," and said: "We do so on our timeline and at our choosing."

Hegseth on Israel: Acknowledged that Israel has its own goals for the conflict. "Israel has been a really strong partner in this effort. Where they have different objectives, they pursued them. Ultimately, we've stayed focused on ours."

Caine: Reported that the U.S. had struck more than 5,000 targets, including underground missile launchers and drone factories. Iranian ballistic missile launches were down 90% and drone attacks down 83%.


March 11 — Day 12

Trump: Told reporters: "We have hit them harder than virtually any country in history has been hit, and we're not finished yet."

White House on Israel: Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: "The end of American involvement in this conflict will ultimately be determined by the commander in chief when he feels the military objectives have been fully achieved and the threat from the rogue Iranian regime has been completely destroyed." Meanwhile, reporting indicated the White House feared Israel would continue fighting even after the U.S. exits the war — with Israeli officials privately describing the conflict as "Bibi's dream for decades."

Rubio (classified Senate briefing): Democratic Senator Chris Murphy reported that the stated goal appeared to be destroying missiles, boats, and drone factories — but that the question of what happens when the U.S. stops bombing and Iran restarts production went unanswered by administration officials.


The through-line across these 12 days: The administration's three official military objectives (missiles, navy, no nukes) have remained fairly consistent from Hegseth and Caine, but Trump's shifting rhetoric on regime change, the Israeli role controversy ignited and then furiously walked back by Rubio, the easing of Russian oil sanctions even as Moscow was reportedly helping Iran target Americans, and the unresolved question of what comes after the bombing have created a picture of a war with clear tactical goals and no defined political endgame.


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